Monday, May 15, 2006

Commodities will correct sharply and will rise again Google's pain will persisit for months.

Sell off started on Thursday when GAZPROM fell heavily in Russia, then chart were broken on Nasdaq in Thursday and Friday action. Today all emerging markets took the hit as commodities and commodities related markets were driven down by profit taking and general risk averse situation. But the main picture is that USD is falling apart and all dollar related assets will be under pressure. All commodities after brief correction will continue their rise because they are driven by fundamentals: demand from BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and fundamental weakness in USD. As more and more dollars will be dumped into the market more and more commodities will rise. Latest TIC report is showing that foreign banks are NET SELLERS of US treasuries, so today's blip in the dollar is very temporary thing and in the days ahead with dramatic increase in volatility this situation will be considered as one of the last buying opportunity in the powerfully move ahead. Who will be hostage's of the risen volatility and risk averse approach: usual suspects high beta stocks with almost all analyst at buy and fundamental problems to the underlying business, crash will be brutal because valuation is supported by only belief in the myth about profitability and growth, as soon as the smoke will settle and retail will realize that there is no way to justify even half of the GOOGLE market cap disaster will be on the front pages.

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