Sunday, March 11, 2007

Ooops, my Non science Fiction happen to be true

As I put before in "Market SellOff and coming Slump: Gold, Silver and Commodities Meditation. CS " :"...Here are few important assumptions for the Health of the Market: you must be very Dumb in shoe making (remember your expertise is in windmill business (any Tech will do for Average Joe), you must think that people there are not so Rotten as in your industry (you will never invest in your neighbours windmill, they are all crooks) people in General are subject to Authority, so guys who will prepack IPO of shoe maker will put guy from Harvard in charge. And you must have other Market participants like analysts with Buy recommendation (who work for the bank which is selling IPO or have some position in shares and need to sell) and People managing Other's People Money. This is very special breed -your difference with them is that you are losing your Capital, they could lose their job in worst case scenario. Usually they are fine if the value of the Fund plunge together with Market, it is called Benchmarking."
"On March 1, a Wall Street analyst at Bear Stearns wrote an upbeat report on a company that specializes in making mortgages to cash-poor homebuyers. The company, New Century Financial, had already disclosed that a growing number of borrowers were defaulting, and its stock, at around $15, had lost half its value in three weeks. What happened next seems all too familiar to investors who bought technology stocks in 2000 at the breathless urging of Wall Street analysts. Last week, New Century said it would stop making loans and needed emergency financing to survive. The stock collapsed to $3.21. ... The Bear Stearns analyst who upgraded New Century, Scott R. Coren, wrote in a research note that the company’s stock price reflected the risks in its industry, and that the downside risk was about $10 in a “rescue-sale scenario.” According to New Century, Bear Stearns is among the firms with a “longstanding” relationship financing its mortgage operation. Mr. Coren, through a spokeswoman, declined to comment"
Same old, same old...ENRON, Worldcom, TYCO...Google (but this time it is different, is it?)

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Sub-prime is a lose-lose game.

If the home buyer is a dog, then they don't pay. If the home buyer is very good, then they refinance at the end of a year.

Sub-prime is a lose-lose game.
No surprise there.